Manage Uncertainty

Manage Uncertainty in Project Schedules with ScheduleRiskAnalysis

Answer the Questions: “Will this finish within budget and on schedule?” by performing risk analysis on your project schedules with Lumivero’s ScheduleRiskAnalysis (SRA). By analyzing schedule risk with Monte Carlo simulation in @RISK, SRA can show you virtually all possible outcomes in your schedule – and tells you how likely each is to occur. Whether you use Primavera P6 or Microsoft Project, you can upload your files into SRA and quickly start identifying and mitigating risk in your project schedules.”

Meet Deadlines and Plan Contingencies using Monte Carlo Simulation

ScheduleRiskAnalysis (or SRA) is a complete toolset within @RISK that enables project managers to account for uncertain variables in project schedules. Working within the familiar Excel environment, SRA lets you perform risk modeling on project files created in Primavera P6 or Microsoft Project. Simply read those files into SRA, and instantly apply all the power and flexibility of @RISK Monte Carlo simulation in Excel. Scheduling applications like Project or P6 lack the ability to account for uncertain variables, such as unknown task dates, durations, or resource usages. SRA fills this gap by bringing the most powerful risk analysis technology on the market to your schedules, while preserving 100% of the integrity and logic of your original model. Best of all, you can now combine your cost risk models with your schedule models all in one place – integrated project risk management in your spreadsheet!

What is ScheduleRiskAnalysis?

ScheduleRiskAnalysis analyzes schedule risk using Monte Carlo simulation with @RISK. This means SRA shows you virtually all possible outcomes in your schedule – and tells you how likely each is to occur. SRA helps you judge which risks to take, and which ones to avoid. SRA also ranks your risks, enabling you to identify the variables which impact your schedule the most. With SRA, you can:

Avoid otherwise unseen schedule delays or extra costs
Identify new opportunities to save time or accomplish tasks more efficiently
Understand critical factors affecting your schedule, so you can make contingency plans
Create contingency budgets based on probabilistic data
Communicate risks effectively to others, from team members to management
Combine your schedule models with existing Excel-based cost models

How SRA is Used

SRA has a multitude of applications, including:
Transportation Planning
Manage uncertain schedule outcomes, create contingency plans, and quantify cost risks to meet federal compliance requirements, secure funding, and ensure promised outcomes for all stakeholders. Account for highly uncertain usage forecasts to meet demand for decades to come.
Defense Projects
Plan complex strategies for the development, manufacture, and procurement of military equipment. Risks on such projects are heightened by goals that push the limits of technical feasibility, and involve great cost. Understand the risk factors and probabilities of different outcomes to meet approval requirements and improve on-time, in-budget deliveries.
Aerospace Engineering
Understand the likelihood of hitting milestones to launch, and the impact delays have on downstream phases of multi-year, high-risk space and aeronautics projects. Generate and analyze large amounts of data for analysis of failure points and to identify areas of new opportunities.
Account for uncertain construction costs and unknown build schedules in commercial and residential projects in order to secure financing and meet regulatory requirements. Assess demand for use of facilities decades into the future. Identify major risks of delay and overrun, and develop reasonable contingency plans to keep development projects on track.
Integrated Schedule and Cost Risk Analysis
Assess variation around duration, start date, and end dates, as well as add uncertainty to unknown costs and resource requirements for various tasks in a project. Simulate both schedule and costs to determine the chance of achieving completion dates at different funding levels. Determine contingency requirements at given confidence levels.

Key Features
In addition to all the features available in @RISK, SRA provides robust project-specific functionality:

​Proven Monte Carlo Simulation for Project Schedules

@RISK’s Monte Carlo algorithms have been proven over decades of innovation and refinement – since 1984. SRA brings this technology to durations, start dates, finish dates, and costs in your schedule, enabling robust risk analysis never before possible.
Learn About Monte Carlo Simulation

Integrate Schedule and Cost Risk

Add schedule risk modeling to your existing Excel-based cost models to view the complete picture of your project. Build risk registers in your spreadsheet that link to your schedule models and add delays or costs as risk events occur.

Define Uncertainty Easily and Accurately

Define and update probability distributions to represent uncertainty in project elements – such as durations, dates, and costs. Choose from dozens of distribution types for the highest level of accuracy. Do this in batches to save time.

Streamlined Model Setup

Convenient parameters for Optimistic, Most Likely, and Pessimistic scenarios make defining your uncertain inputs quick and easy for commonly-used distributions.

Activity Capacity

Manage hundreds or thousands of different activities.

Probabilistic Gantt Charts

Simulation results are reported in Gantt chart format, both standard and probabilistic. Probabilistic Gantt charts add visual indicators for key simulation statistics such as mean, standard deviation, min and max. This tells you – at a glance – the likelihood of different durations and finish dates for individual tasks, groups of tasks, or the whole project. All Gantt charts are dynamic and update with every simulation.

Critical Indices

Assess the importance of a task by evaluating the percentage of the time it occurs on the project’s critical path.

Schedule Audits

Check a project schedule to identify entries that can affect simulation results or lead to inaccuracies. This lets you make changes to the original schedule model before you spend time on a simulation.

If/Then Conditional Modeling

Leverage native Excel IF statements to enable more complex logic through conditional modeling during a Monte Carlo simulation. This enables more accurate modeling of contingency plans and is not possible to do in standard scheduling applications.

Enterprise Licensing
Better Research, Insights, and Outcomes for All

Whether your organization’s focus is qualitative, quantitative, or mixed methods data analysis, we can help your whole team work better together — collaborating to aggregate, organize, analyze, and present your findings. Lumivero’s enterprise licensing options offer volume pricing for teams and organizations needing nine (9) or more licenses.

Enterprise licenses allow the flexibility to install Lumivero software and solutions on multiple computers (up to the maximum number of licenses that your site has purchased) with a centralized management solution.

Lumivero’s team-based solutions allow you to:

Stay up-to-date with free upgrades to the latest releases
Reduce IT costs with one platform deployed across your organization
Reassign licenses to different users as teams evolve
Centralize license and subscription management in one place
Streamline budget allocation, especially for smaller groups and consultancy firms
Enjoy a Dedicated Customer Success Manager and pro-rated rates for new users

Included with The DecisionTools Suite

The complete risk and decision analysis toolkit, including @RISK, PrecisionTree, TopRank, NeuralTools, StatTools, Evolver, RISKOptimizer, and ScheduleRiskAnalysis.

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