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Probabilistic Risk Analysis in Excel 

Powerful risk analysis for confident decision-making

Take control of uncertainty with @RISK—the tool that empowers your team to quantify and mitigate risks with confidence, all within Microsoft Excel. Whether you’re navigating financial markets, optimizing operations, or ensuring regulatory compliance, @RISK transforms complex uncertainties into actionable insights through Monte Carlo simulation—enabling data-driven decisions that drive business success.  

See All Possible Outcomes using Monte Carlo Simulation

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How @RISK Works

@RISK (pronounced “at risk”) software is an add-in tool for Microsoft Excel that helps you make better decisions through risk modeling and analysis. It does this using a technique known as Monte Carlo simulation. @RISK’s Monte Carlo analysis computes and tracks many different possible future scenarios in your risk model, showing you the probability of each occurring. In this way, @RISK shows you virtually all possible outcomes for any situation. This probabilistic approach makes @RISK a powerful tool that you can use to judge which risks to take and which ones to avoid — critical insight in today’s uncertain world.

Works with Microsoft Excel
Avoid Pitfalls and Uncover Opportunities with Risk Analysis
Plan Better Strategies
Model Risk Factors and Protect Yourself with Contingency Planning
Communicate Risk To Others

Endless Applications

As the pace of change in business continues to increase, organizations are challenged to increase margins and explore new opportunities for growth, all while reducing risk. @RISK is designed to meet these challenges.
Investment Planning & Portfolio Optimization. Simulate multiple portfolio assets (such as stocks, bonds, real estate, or projects) to maximize return while minimizing risk. Calculate Value-at-Risk, or the probability of different losses on a portfolio.
Cost Estimation. Get an accurate probabilistic estimate of materials and labor costs throughout the entire project. Understand the likelihood of going over budget under a variety of scenarios.
Engineering Reliability. Using Six Sigma calculations, gain insight into confidence levels around the risk of equipment failure or safety violations. Identify areas of weakness to ensure quality results and prevent failures.
Capital Reserves. Probabilistically forecast future claims or losses in order to determine optimal reserve levels. Perform stress testing on high-impact, low-probability events.
Oil, Gas, & Mineral Reserves. Assess the likelihood of prospective sites containing oil, natural gas, metals, or other minerals. Probabilistically estimate reserves and production decline in order to make wise drilling decisions.

Get Insights for Better Decisions

While @RISK provides sophisticated analytics, don’t be intimidated. All techniques @RISK uses are intuitive applications that integrate seamlessly with your existing Excel spreadsheets and provide actionable results with point-and-click ease.
Monte Carlo Simulation. By sampling different possible inputs, @RISK calculates thousands of possible future outcomes and the chances they will occur. This helps you avoid likely hazards — and uncover hidden opportunities.
100% Excel Integration. @RISK integrates seamlessly with Excel’s function set and ribbon, letting you work in a familiar environment with results you can trust.
Sensitivity Analysis. @RISK identifies and ranks the most important factors driving your risks so you can plan strategies — and resources — accordingly.
Graphs and Reports. @RISK offers a wide variety of customizable, exportable graphing and reporting options that let you communicate risk to all stakeholders.
Extensive Modeling Features. With a broad library of probability distributions, data fitting tools, and correlation modeling, @RISK lets you represent any scenario in any industry with the highest level of accuracy.

Customer Success Stories with @RISK

Learn how @RISK has helped decision makers to improve risk and decision analysis efforts.

Industries Using @RISK

From classroom to career: Equipping students with real-world analysis skills


Give your students a competitive edge by integrating @RISK into your business, finance, engineering, and decision science curriculum. From modeling uncertainty to making informed decisions, graduates who master @RISK enter the workforce ready to tackle real-world challenges with confidence.

Help students move beyond theoretical concepts to real-world decision-making with hands-on experience in statistical and risk analysis.
Real-world applications: Teach students to model investment risks, project management uncertainties, engineering design variations, and more.
Microsoft Excel integration: Provide a seamless learning experience by leveraging Excel’s familiar interface for risk analysis.
Common courses: Easily incorporate @RISK into corporate finance, investment analysis, operations research, project management, statistical modeling, and decision analysis curriculum.
In-demand skills: Develop expertise in identifying key risk factors, building probabilistic models, interpreting results, and communicating insights effectively.

Enterprise Licensing:
Better Research, Insights, and Outcomes for all

Lumivero has the most complete collection of research, data and decision-making tools available anywhere, and we can help your whole team work better together — collaborating to aggregate, organize, analyze, and present your findings.

Lumivero’s enterprise licensing options offer volume pricing for teams and organizations needing nine (9) or more licenses.

Enterprise licenses allow the flexibility to install Lumivero software and solutions on multiple computers (up to the maximum number of licenses your organization has purchased) with a centralized management solution, putting you in control of your license management.

Lumivero’s team-based solutions allow you to:

Stay up-to-date with free upgrades to the latest releases
Reduce IT costs with one platform deployed across your organization
Reassign licenses to different users as teams evolve
Centralize license and subscription management in one place
Streamline budget allocation, especially for smaller groups and consultancy firms
Enjoy a Dedicated Customer Success Manager and pro-rated rates for new users
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@RISK Key Features

General
Interface
Modeling
Simulation
Simulation Results
Industrial Edition Features
RISKOptimizer
FeatureBenefitProfessional EditionIndustrial Edition
Monte Carlo simulationShows possible outcomes to avoid pitfalls and identify opportunities
100% Excel calculations for simulationHighest level of accuracy, and maximum use of multi-core processors for speed
FeatureBenefitProfessional EditionIndustrial Edition
Seamless Integration into Microsoft ExcelNever leave your spreadsheet; get up to speed quickly
Intuitive toolbars and right-click menus Easy navigation—multiple ways to perform common tasks
FeatureBenefitProfessional EditionIndustrial Edition
Distribution Palette and Insert Function commandEasy and accurate definition of uncertain factors
Distribution Fitting and Distribution ArtistUse data and expert judgment to define uncertain factors
Over 90 built-in distribution functionsRepresent virtually any uncertain factor for accurate modeling
@RISK Function SwapRemove (and later restore) @RISK functions for sharing models with non-@RISK users
Predefined DistributionsCreate customized distributions with your own parameters and names
Compound functionCombines two distributions into one, to streamline insurance or other large models
Percentile distribution parametersMore flexible ways to define uncertainty
Correlation and Copulas Standard correlation available, along with copulas, which provide sophisticated methods for correlating uncertain @RISK variables that allow more control over the correlation pattern
@RISK Data ViewerDisplay any spreadsheet data using all @RISK charts and graphing options
Excel Developer Kit (XDK)Automate and customize @RISK for Excel through a library of commands and functions that let you control every aspect of @RISK in your spreadsheet
FeatureBenefitProfessional EditionIndustrial Edition
Demo Mode and live updatingGraphs and reports update during simulation for illustration to others
Extensive settings controlCustomize simulations to specific needs
FeatureBenefitProfessional EditionIndustrial Edition
Fully customizable, presentation-quality graphsSee the impact of risk and communicate to stakeholders
Reporting in OfficeAll graphs and charts can be exported to Excel, Word, and PowerPoint in native chart format for easy distribution to others
Customized Excel ReportsCreate exactly the simulation results reports you want directly in Excel, automatically formatted for optimal viewing. Apply Excel themes to your graphs.
Histograms, area, line, cumulative, summary, box plot, and overlay graphsVariety of graphing and charting options for easy, accurate communication
Tornado charts and scatter plotsVisually identify critical factors and trends, overall and for particular scenarios
Sensitivity and Scenario AnalysisIdentify the individual tasks that have the most impact on results, and the particular scenarios that lead to certain results
Six Sigma functionsReport Six Sigma statistics for quality analysis
Stress AnalysisLets you control the range that is sampled from a distribution function, enabling you to see how different scenarios affect your bottom line without changing your model
Advanced Sensitivity AnalysisLets you see how changes in any input—distributions or regular values—affect simulation results
@RISK Goal SeekUses multiple simulations to find an input value that achieves a target simulation result you specify
@RISK Tornado Graphs and Sensitivity Analysis
Gaining Insights into your Models
FeatureBenefitProfessional EditionIndustrial Edition
Simulation of Time-series forecastsUnderstand the risks in values that change over time
Correlation of Time SeriesIt is possible to correlate two or more time-series functions so that during each iteration the array of values returned by the individual time series are subject to the specified correlation coefficient.
Multi-core processor and multiple CPU supportSpeed up simulations. “Split up” large simulations to run on multiple CPUs or cores and reduce simulation run time.
RISKOptimizerSolve problems with more accuracy than ever.
FeatureBenefitProfessional EditionIndustrial Edition
Optimization under uncertaintyCombines Monte Carlo simulation with sophisticated optimization techniques to find optimal solutions to uncertain problems. Used for budgeting, allocation, scheduling, and more.
Efficient Frontier AnalysisEspecially useful in financial analysis, Efficient Frontiers determine the optimal return that can be expected from a portfolio at a given level of risk
Ranges for adjustable cells and constraintsStreamlined model setup and editing
Genetic algorithmsFind the best global solution while avoiding getting caught in local, “hill-climbing” solutions
Six solving methods, including GAs and OptQuestAlways have the best method for different types of problems
RISKOptimizer Watcher and Convergence MonitoringMonitor progress toward best solutions in real time
Overlay of Optimized vs Original DistributionCompare original output to optimized result to visually see improvements
Original, Best, Last model updatingInstantly see the effects of three solutions on your entire model

FAQS

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the licensing options for @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite?

  1.  Concurrent Network Licenses Concurrent network licenses provide flexibility by allowing an unlimited number of installations with a restriction only on the number of users who can access the software at the same time. This type of license also supports "borrowing" seats for remote use and allows access via remote desktop technology, offering additional flexibility for users on the go.
    • Permits multiple users with a restriction on simultaneous access
    • Allows seats to be "borrowed" for offline use with set time limits
    • Supports remote access from off-site locations
    • Uses a single serial number for all seats
  2. Subscription Licenses All Palisade software is available on a subscription basis, allowing you to choose a plan that fits your budget. Subscription licenses can be categorized as operating expenses and include full technical support along with free upgrades to new versions during the subscription term.
    • Flexible investment options
    • Classified as operating expenses
    • Includes free upgrades to the latest versions
    • Covers software maintenance updates, compatibility fixes, and patches
    • Offers 24/7 technical support with an online HelpDesk and KnowledgeBase
  3. Desktop Licenses Desktop licenses, or standalone licenses, are designed for individual users needing dedicated access on a single computer. This is ideal for users who require uninterrupted access to @RISK or the DecisionTools Suite on one machine.
    • For single-user access only
    • Installed on one computer per license
    • Each license comes with a unique serial number

What operating systems can @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite work on?

@RISK and the DecisionTools Suite is only compatible in a Windows environment. If you have a Mac then you can set up a Windows emulator to access the software. More information on this set up is available here: https://community.lumivero.com/s/article/risk-on-the-apple-mac?language=en_US

Transform Uncertainty into Opportunity with @RISK

Discover the globally trusted tool that empowers you to manage risk and make confident, data-driven decisions.

Request a demo

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