Energy and utilities

Manage Risk in Energy and Power Decisions During Turbulent Times

Energy companies and utilities face risks from climate issues, supply chain snarls, political uncertainty and the pressure to transition from fossil fuels to alternative energy. Lumivero products help produce statistics for qualitative data while creating insights to manage risk and guide decisions going forward.

From Upstream E&P to the Local Grid, Lumivero Solutions Reduce Risk While Meeting Global Energy Needs

Whether you work at ExxonMobil, a regional utility, a coal mine, or a public agency anyone in the energy sector knows that they face more risk than ever before. As an industry spanning global markets, international geopolitical environments, and diverse economies, energy companies are exposed to a wide range of constantly-changing uncertainties that can negatively impact bottom lines and shareholder value.

Hurricanes, droughts, wildfires, and flooding all threaten power grids and infrastructure like never before. At the same time, the industry must adapt to more sustainable, renewable energy sources, a fundamental shift after centuries of fossil fuel dependency. Regulatory and environmental policy changes are another source of uncertainty. They can change rapidly with the political climate and vary constantly from one jurisdiction to another. Not to mention volatility in tariff and trade policy, which can significantly impact both export prices and the import of commodities like steel. Cyberattacks pose yet another threat in an age where sophisticated hackers can shut down entire pipelines from thousands of miles away. Lumivero’s software solutions offer supporting mechanisms like predictive data analysis, decision trees, and Monte Carlo simulations to produce scenarios that illuminate the likely outcomes of different decisions and the risks involved.

Demand Forecasting

Estimate uncertain demand for electricity and other forms of power. Optimize maintenance schedules and asset lifecycles given uncertain demand. While the energy sector is under considerable pressure to transition to renewable energy sources, the reliability and over-commitment of sources remain in question. With Lumivero software solutions, energy firms can apply data to simulate different scenarios, so they can understand the risks they face in making this transition, and thus make better decisions about how to strike the balance.
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Resource Expenditures

Assess the likelihood of prospective sites containing oil, natural gas, or other minerals. Probabilistically estimate reserves and production decline to make wise drilling decisions. Forecast load on power grids. Political and regulatory pressures have added to the cost of extracting oil, coal, and natural gas for refining and delivery to markets, and energy companies must carefully consider whether market demand can deliver a return on these investments in such an environment. Lumivero software solutions can show decision-makers the likelihood of going over budget based on analysis of data and guide them to the best course of action when deciding how to proceed.
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Price Hedging

Mitigate exposure to commodity price volatility through an optimized options and futures strategy that accounts for uncertainty. Assess infrastructure projects given uncertain future demand and costs. Optimize allocation of limited funds across a portfolio of capital projects. Decision-makers can then apply products from Lumivero’s software solutions to determine the best path forward in recognition of the insight that comes from the data.
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Engineering and Operations

Assess the likelihood of prospective sites containing oil, natural gas, or other minerals with Lumivero’s tools. Plus, probabilistically estimate reserves and production decline in order to make wise drilling decisions and forecast load on power grids – allowing you to consider uncertainties in your risk analysis for strategic planning.
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Everything You Need to Know 
to Elevate Your Research

How does Lumivero help those in the Energy & Utilities industry create impact with their data?

Lumivero’s suite of products brings robust analytics such as Monte Carlo simulation, optimization, decision trees, sensitivity analysis, and predictive data analysis to Microsoft Excel. This enables users of all levels to contribute to better decision-making – with or without data, and with or without a statistics background.

How does Lumivero help with energy demand forecasting?

Use Lumivero’s quantitative analysis tools to estimate uncertain demand for electricity and other forms of power, optimize maintenance schedules and asset life cycles given uncertain demand.

Featured Case Studies

Building Renewable Energy Systems across Multiple Countries and Currencies

WEnergy Global was considering the pros and cons of moving forward with a 25-year term renewable energy project over multiple geographies, which required a thorough financial feasibility and scenario analysis. WEnergy Global turned to @RISK to determine whether or not the probability of risk on revenue and ROI warranted moving forward or rejecting the project.

@RISK Helps Turn Waste Into Energy

Rudd Asset Management used the DecisionTools Suite to determine that converting stall bedding and manure waste into renewable energy was a feasible, cost-effective solution—helping the complex turn a waste-disposal problem into a profit.

Optimising Sustainable Energy Projects Using the DecisionTools Suite

The DecisionTools Suite enables Sark7 to develop profitable business cases for sustainable energy projects, thereby acting as a due-diligence tool for prospective sustainability entrepreneurs, investors, project managers, providers and organizations.

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“Capital costs and construction delays used to be the biggest risks in undertaking renewable projects. When there are no subsidies involved, however…developers are fully exposed to wholesale prices. According to a recent McKinsey report, this ‘merchant risk’ can be up to four times bigger than construction risk. Therefore, developers and investors will need to think and act strategically in their approach to long-term price risk.”
Jane Doe
Mckinsey & Company
“Because @RISK was able to communicate complex analyses in a transparent and meaningful way, BC Hydro has been able to set very aggressive energy conservation goals while feeling confident that the right balance between conservation and finding new supply side resources has been found.”
Basil Stumborg
Decision Analyst – Finance, BC Hydro

Reduce Risk While Meeting Energy Needs

A majority of leading companies in the energy sector rely on Lumivero software solutions to meet these challenges head-on, all from a familiar spreadsheet environment.

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