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Models

Portfolio Evaluation of Multi-phase Projects

This example looks at cash flow analysis of projects with multiple phases (5) such as those typically found in the pharmacological industry. Each phase has its assigned cash flow and probability of proceeding onto the next phase.

We are interested in evaluating the cashflow of the portfolio given the chance of approval and the uncertainty of the cashflows for each phase.

We also want to compare different combinations of projects in terms of mean cashflow values and the likelihood of exceeding a target cash flow.

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