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Risk and Decision
Build Risk Models Executives Can Trust: A defense program case study with @RISK Agent
Join Manuel Carmona, Risk and Decision Analysis Specialist, EdytrAIning Ltd, as he follows one @RISK model from estimate to decision brief. Using a defense program case built from public reporting, he’ll show how the @RISK Agent works at both ends: challenging the inputs and drafting the brief executives read.
Webinar speakers
Manuel Carmona
Risk and Decision Analysis Specialist, EdyTrAIning, Ltd.
Manuel Carmona is an independent consultant, trainer, author, and PhD researcher at the University of Westminster in London, specialising in Artificial Intelligence, project risk management, and quantitative risk analysis (QRA). With more than 25 years of international experience, he has delivered hundreds of professional training programmes and coached thousands of practitioners in @RISK and Decision Tools Suite modelling, project risk management, probabilistic modelling, and Monte Carlo simulation. He is the author of Artificial Intelligence and Risk Analysis in Projects (Routledge) and Inteligencia Artificial y Análisis de Riesgos en Proyectos (Marcombo).
In this webinar, you'll:
Check that your scenarios cover what could really happen, including discrete risk events, and rule out combinations that can’t occur together.
Set realistic ranges and tails, and see live in the model why they move the P80 more than the choice of distribution
Turn results into a decision brief covering contingency, confidence levels, and the risks driving them.
Use the @RISK Agent to stress-test your inputs and draft the brief.
Lumivero decision software solutions
Interactive decision visualization for understanding risk dependencies, trade-offs, and impact.
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