March Madness is one of the most exhilarating sporting events of the year. The unpredictability of the NCAA basketball tournament—with its shocking upsets, Cinderella stories, and buzzer-beaters—makes it a challenge for even the most seasoned analysts to predict the outcome. But what if there was a way to make sense of the unpredictability of college basketball?
By leveraging data-driven analysis and probabilistic modeling, we might be able to identify hidden patterns and bring a new level of strategy to bracket predictions to help us answer who is most likely to win March Madness. Could the secret to building the perfect bracket be rooted in science rather than luck?
Continue reading to dive into strategies for the 2025 NCAA Tournament predictions with @RISK, and check out our on-demand webinar with Dr. Fabien Llobell, “March Madness Bracketology: The Science of Prediction and Decision-Making.”
The NCAA Tournament and the impossible bracket: Can data analytics crack the code?
Creating perfect March Madness bracket predictions is an extraordinarily challenging feat. To date, no one has ever completed a verifiably perfect bracket in the history of the NCAA tournament. The difficulty arises from the sheer number of possible outcomes in the NCAA tournament. With 63 games in a standard bracket, the number of potential outcomes is astronomical.
Even with a solid understanding of basketball, the odds of predicting every game correctly are staggeringly low. The closest anyone has come to a perfect bracket occurred in 2019 when an individual correctly predicted the first 49 games of the tournament before making an incorrect pick. This extreme level of unpredictability underscores the value of using advanced tools like @RISK to enhance prediction strategies. While achieving a perfect bracket may remain elusive, employing probabilistic analysis can improve your chances of making more accurate predictions.
Why use @RISK for NCAA March Madness predictions?
@RISK is a Monte Carlo simulation software that allows users to model uncertainty and forecast probabilities. When applied to March Madness, it can analyze historical data, team statistics, and expert predictions to provide more informed insights into potential outcomes. Rather than relying solely on gut instinct or traditional bracketology methods, @RISK helps quantify the probability of different scenarios.
How it works with college basketball
Using @RISK, we can:
- Simulate thousands of tournament outcomes by incorporating variables such as offensive and defensive efficiency and historical performance.
- Assign probability distributions to key factors like team momentum or more advances like rebounds.
- Identify high-risk matchups where lower-seeded teams have a greater chance of pulling off an upset.
Key findings from simulations
After running multiple simulations, we often observe interesting trends:
- The power of high seeds – Historically, top seeds advance far, but @RISK can help identify which high seed is most vulnerable.
- Cinderella watch – Certain lower-seeded teams consistently show higher probabilities of making a deep run.
- Final Four probabilities – Instead of picking blindly, @RISK allows us to assign likelihoods to each team reaching the Final Four.
Embracing the March Madness
While @RISK improves prediction accuracy, the answer to ‘who will win March Madness’ will never really be known until the final buzzer. Unexpected player performances, coaching strategies, and sheer luck still play a major role. The beauty of @RISK is that it doesn’t eliminate uncertainty—it helps us embrace it with data-driven confidence.
Join our webinar covering college basketball!
To further explore the power of @RISK in predicting March Madness outcomes, watch our on-demand webinar, “March Madness Bracketology,” where we will showcase a custom-built model designed to enhance bracket predictions. Watch this webinar to:
- Learn the model’s key components and assumptions.
- Explore real-time simulations and insights.
- Gain tips for using @RISK effectively in your bracket strategy.
Take your 2025 NCAA bracket to the next level with @RISK
If you’re filling out a team bracket this year, why not enhance your strategy with @RISK? By incorporating probabilistic analysis into your picks, you can increase your chances of success while still enjoying the thrill of the tournament.
Who will cut down the nets this year? With @RISK, we can make an educated guess, but in the end, it’s still March Madness—where anything can happen!
Ready to take your predictions to the next level? Request a demo of @RISK!
Dr. Fabien Llobell
Head of Quantitative Research at Lumivero
Dr. Fabien Llobell is a world-renowned sensometrics expert with a PhD in statistics. He has made a significant impact on the field of sensory research with his work and has been instrumental in the development of numerous statistical tools and methods. His expertise in the field of statistics and sensometrics has enabled him to develop a range of XLSTAT features, particularly in the sensory menu, that have allowed users to have more and more useful tools at their disposal to analyze their data. Fabien's contributions to the field of Sensometrics have been widely recognized, and he has presented his proposed statistical methods at numerous well-known conferences around the world, such as Pangborn, Eurosense, SDSS, Sensometrics and JSM.