DECIDE WITH CONFIDENCE

Probabilistic Decision Analysis in Excel With PrecisionTree

Improve your decision analysis by using decision trees and influence diagrams to visualize different outcomes with PrecisionTree in Microsoft Excel. Decision trees let you visually map out complex decisions in a sequential, organized manner – helping you identify all possible alternatives and choose the best option.

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Select the Best Option with Confidence

PrecisionTree helps address complex sequential decision models by visually mapping out, organizing, and analyzing decisions using decision trees . Decision trees are quantitative diagrams with nodes and branches representing different possible decision paths and chance events. This helps you analyze the value of all possible alternatives, so you can choose the best option with confidence.

What is PrecisionTree?

With PrecisionTree, you can analyze and see the payoff and probability of each possible path through a decision tree. PrecisionTree nodes and functions may be added to any cell in a spreadsheet and can include arguments that are cell references and expressions – allowing great flexibility in defining decision models.

PrecisionTree determines the best decision to make at each decision node and marks the branch for that decision TRUE. Once your decision tree is complete, PrecisionTree creates a full decision analysis statistics report on the best decision to make and its comparison with alternative decisions. PrecisionTree can also create a Risk Profile graph that compares the payoffs and risk of different decision options. It displays probability and cumulative charts showing the probabilities of different outcomes and of an outcome less than or equal to a certain value.

Works with Microsoft Excel

Choose the Best Option with Confidence

Plan Better Strategies

Communicate Decision Paths to Others

Visually Map out Decisions

How PrecisionTree Is Used

PrecisionTree has a multitude of applications, including:

Oil, Gas, & Mineral Reserves: Map out sequential, probabilistic exploration plans of prospective sites containing oil, natural gas, or other minerals. Estimate uncertain reserves to make wise drilling decisions.

Litigation & Bidding Strategy: Plan step-by-step strategies in complex legal or business negotiations, or when bidding on contracts. Map what could happen at each stage and your response to, along with probabilistic chance events.

Real Options Valution: Quantify the value of real options, or the right to undertake an investment or not, in the face of uncertainty future outcomes.

Supply Chain Management: Develop multi-stage plans for complex supply chains, incorporating probabilities of failures and other chance events.

Medical Treatment Planning: Establish sequential, multi-stage treatment plans for complex medical conditions given uncertain outcomes at each stage.

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Industries

Energy & Utilities

Insurance & Reinsurance

Finance & Banking

Manufacturing & Consumer Goods

Construction & Engineering

Aerospace & Defence

Key Features

Visual, Probabilistic Decision Trees

PrecisionTree allows you to visually understand a decision, identify best options, and communicate results to others. You’ll see the payoff and probability of each possible path through a decision tree in Microsoft Excel.

100% Microsoft Excel Integration

With PrecisionTree, you never leave your spreadsheet, allowing you to work in a familiar environment, and get up to speed quickly.

Full Statistics Reports and Graphs

See results in risk profile graphs, 2-way sensitivity, tornado graphs, spider graphs, policy suggestion reports, and strategy-region graphs.

Bayesian Revision

“Flip” one or more chance nodes to show probabilities calculated using Bayes’ Rule. This is valuable when the probabilities of a model are not available in a directly useful form. For example: You need to know the probability of an outcome occurring given the results of a particular test. The test’s accuracy may be known, but the only way to determine the probability you seek is to “reverse” a traditional decision tree in Microsoft Excel using Bayes Rule.

Advanced Features

Set up your decision tree in Microsoft Excel exactly as you need it with logic nodes, reference nodes, linked trees, custom utility functions, and influence diagrams.

Feature	Benefit	Professional	Industrial
Decision Trees	Visually understand a decision, identify best options, and communicate results to others
Seamless Integration into Microsoft Excel	Never leave your spreadsheet; get up to speed quickly
Intuitive Toolbars and Right-click Menus	Easy navigation—multiple ways to perform common tasks
Risk Profile Reports	Shows payoffs and risks of different options
Sensitivity Analysis	Identifies most influential variables in a decision
Policy Suggestion Report	Shows optimal decisions and payoffs
Strategy Region Graphs	Displays value of decisions over ranges of 1 or 2 variables
Bayesian Revision	Reverses chance nodes to show probabilities calculated using Bayes Rule
Reference nodes and collapsible branches	Streamline large trees for easy navigation
Logic Nodes	Allows conditional modeling
Linked Trees and VBA Payoff Calculations	Allows complex payoff computations outside of the tree itself
Utility Functions	Account for decision maker’s attitude toward risk when calculating the best decision
PrecisionTree Developer Kit	Automate and customize PrecisionTree with Excel VBA
Compatibility with @RISK	Account for uncertainty and run Monte Carlo simulations to see all possible outcomes
Influence Diagrams	Visually summarize a decision
Append Symmetric Subtree	Quickly build large trees, saving a lot of time.
Insert Node	Easily put a new node inbetween existing nodes in fewer steps.
Copy Tree Image to Clipboard	Copy and paste any part of a decision tree into Word, PowerPoint, or any application for reports and presentations.
Number of Tree Nodes	Professional allows up to 1000 nodes per tree; Industrial is unlimited.

Feature	Benefit	Professional	Industrial
Decision Trees	Visually understand a decision, identify best options, and communicate results to others
Seamless Integration into Microsoft Excel	Never leave your spreadsheet; get up to speed quickly
Intuitive Toolbars and Right-click Menus	Easy navigation—multiple ways to perform common tasks
Risk Profile Reports	Shows payoffs and risks of different options
Sensitivity Analysis	Identifies most influential variables in a decision
Policy Suggestion Report	Shows optimal decisions and payoffs
Strategy Region Graphs	Displays value of decisions over ranges of 1 or 2 variables
Bayesian Revision	Reverses chance nodes to show probabilities calculated using Bayes Rule
Reference nodes and collapsible branches	Streamline large trees for easy navigation
Logic Nodes	Allows conditional modeling
Linked Trees and VBA Payoff Calculations	Allows complex payoff computations outside of the tree itself
Utility Functions	Account for decision maker’s attitude toward risk when calculating the best decision
PrecisionTree Developer Kit	Automate and customize PrecisionTree with Excel VBA
Compatibility with @RISK	Account for uncertainty and run Monte Carlo simulations to see all possible outcomes
Influence Diagrams	Visually summarize a decision
Append Symmetric Subtree	Quickly build large trees, saving a lot of time.
Insert Node	Easily put a new node inbetween existing nodes in fewer steps.
Copy Tree Image to Clipboard	Copy and paste any part of a decision tree into Word, PowerPoint, or any application for reports and presentations.
Number of Tree Nodes	Professional allows up to 1000 nodes per tree; Industrial is unlimited.

Included with The DecisionTools Suite

The complete risk and decision analysis toolkit, including @RISK, PrecisionTree, NeuralTools, StatTools, Evolver, RISKOptimizer, and ScheduleRiskAnalysis.

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