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Risk and Decision

Football World Cup 2026: Calculating Accurate Outcome Probabilities

Who wins the 2026 football World Cup? It's the question every fan is asking—and it turns out, math has a pretty compelling answer.

Join Steve Begg, Emeritus Professor at the University of Adelaide, for a live reveal of his 2026 World Cup outcome probabilities—built using Monte Carlo simulation, one of the most powerful forecasting techniques available.

This isn't just about football. It's about understanding how probabilistic thinking works in the real world—and how Monte Carlo simulation applies to any complex, uncertain situation you face professionally.

But if you are a football fan? Steve will reveal which teams his model gives the best shot at lifting the trophy in 2026. Don't miss it.

On-demand

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Webinar speaker

Steve Begg

Emeritus Professor, University of Adelaide

Uncertainty (with its consequent risks and opportunities) has been a constant theme throughout Steve’s 40-year career — the first half of which was spent in industrial research and application, focusing on modelling variability and uncertainty in geological and sub-surface engineering properties. The second half was in academia where his focus switched to teaching and research on the impact of uncertainty on economic evaluations and, ultimately, decision-making in general. Steve is a founder member of the Society of Decision Professionals. He has a BSc in Geological Geophysics and a PhD in Earthquake Seismology, both from the University of Reading in the UK.

In this webinar, you’ll learn:

What's actually inside the Monte Carlo "black box"—and why it's simpler than you think

Why you don't need mountains of data to generate accurate predictions

What it means for a probability to be correct/accurate—and how to assess it

How a simple uncertainty model can produce reliable forecasts for a tournament as unpredictable as the World Cup

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